Tuesday, November 3, 2009

New Genome Technology May Actually be of Value

I was amused and not amused. I read in an article in BusinesWeek how the financial folks were shocked to find that genome research products have value in determining health and predictive value for patients. This from the Voodoo monkeys on Wall Street? Seriously?

I have yet to see them honestly explain what they do. I figured it out, it just is not commensurate with the press releases they post. An example is "Earnings were up, but analysts expected that and stocks take a tumble."

The truth? Yeah, a lot of folks bet on the revenue being up, but that meant the long bet would be on it going down. The options traders came out ahead by betting on it going down and the 70% who think earnings and stock value are related got spanked.

Get it? It's betting, but you need to know the spread, no different than Football, Basketball or any sport where the spread is important. Know the time on your options both covered calls and puts and you may come out ahead.

On genomics, the issue is how does what we determine today relate to health tomorrow? We find these things out as we get more information. The end result is we do not know for sure today but will definitely use this info to move forward. That is a winning bet any time.

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